Ortega-López, Tadeo R; Reyes-Quan, Javier A; Hernández-Mejía, Benjamín I; Martínez-Hernández, Humberto J; Ortega-Zhindon, Diego B; Mora-Canela, Sergio L

ABSTRACT

The predictive capacity of risk models, such as EuroSCORE II, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, and Age, Creatinine, Ejection Fraction II (ACEF II), used to estimate mortality and complications in cardiac surgery, can vary depending on the characteristics of the population in which they are applied. Objective: to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the EuroSCORE II, STS, and ACEF II risk scores for predicting mortality and postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting at the National Institute of Cardiology Ignacio Chávez in Mexico. Material: a retrospective cohort of 256 adult patients was analyzed between January 2022 and June 2024. The corresponding scores were calculated, and their performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC). Results: a total of 256 patients were included. The median age was 61 years, with a high prevalence of hypertension (62.1%), diabetes mellitus (48%), and prior myocardial infarction (65.2%). In-hospital mortality was 6.25%, and acute kidney injury occurred in 8.2%. However, the models showed low discriminatory capacity: EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.675), STS Mortality (AUC 0.605), and ACEF II (AUC 0.590); the STS renal score had an AUC of 0.67. Conclusions: these commonly used scores showed limited diagnostic performance in this population, suggesting the need for external validation or the development of locally adapted models.

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